000
FXUS61 KBOX 062349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE DAY OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT TO INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY.  THE
EXTREME HEAT WILL EASE A BIT THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE.  A COLD FRONT
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AND/OR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
IT WILL BE A SULTRY EVENING WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 90S AND
INTO THE 80S.

FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTING MAINLY WARM...HUMID
AND DRY NIGHT WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. MINS UPPER 60S TO MID
70S. MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE MARINE STRATUS SHOULD HOLD OFF.
OCEAN LOW BEGINS RETROGRADING TONIGHT BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY SE OF SNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OCEAN LOW MOVES TOWARD MID ATLC COAST WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT.  WEAK
SE FLOW DEVELOPS WHICH WILL RESULT IN OVERALL COOLER DAY WED...BUT
MOST PRONOUNCED COOLING WILL BE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST WITH TEMPS MID
TO UPPER 80S.  BUT STILL LOW TO MID 90S FURTHER INLAND AND TEMPS
POSSIBLY WILL REACH UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 AGAIN FOR CT VALLEY WHERE
850 MB TEMPS STILL 21C.  WE ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR WED FOR
CT VALLEY WHERE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100.  LOW
PROB HEAT INDICES COULD GET TO 100 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR FROM
PORTIONS OF RI NWD TO THE MERRIMACK VALLEY BUT NO ADVSY YET AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER HERE.

MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS SLIGHTLY GREATER WED BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE AT LEAST PTSUNNY SKIES WITH SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPING.
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WED AND CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM
WITH BEST CHC IN THE INTERIOR WHERE HIGHER THETA-E AIR IS LOCATED.
HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS.

WED NIGHT...WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.  NOT MUCH FOCUS FOR ANY
PRECIP BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM AS LOW LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGE REMAINS OVER SNE.  TIME SECTIONS INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH MAY LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF MARINE STRATUS ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  PATCHY FOG ALSO EXPECTED.  ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH MINS MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VERY WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.  WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS WARM AS EARLIER THIS WEEK WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THEY
ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM
THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL STILL EXCEED 70 IN
MANY LOCATIONS WHICH WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES WARMER THAN
THE ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER MAINLY
DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH SURFACE
HEATING MAY OCCUR TO RESULT IN A FEW POPUP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON BOTH DAYS.  AREAL COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED IF ANYTHING FORMS IN OUR REGION...BUT ANY
STORM THAT GOES UP WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.  THIS A RESULT OF WEAK WIND
FIELDS AND HIGH PWAT VALUES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS AND
QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN/ THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK
DOWN.  IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HIGH PWAT
VALUES IN PLACE.  IN FACT...ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.  WHILE A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT...A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THIS TIME.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM.  IN FACT...A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
90+ HEAT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION IS A POSSIBILITY BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR...BUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT A FEW OF OUR TERMINALS LATE.
STRATUS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT AND NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. LOW
PROBABILITY IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN HAZE TOWARD
MORNING. THERE ALSO IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS
IN STRATUS TOWARDS MORNING...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROB OF ISOLD
AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. COASTAL SEABREEZES LIKELY.

KBOS...ESE SEABREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND VEERING BY EARLY EVENING. EARLY
SEABREEZE LIKELY WEDNESDAY BY 15Z.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR IN THE EVENING...BUT IFR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG ALSO DEVELOPING. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS IN LOW
CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

WINDS AND SEAS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE WNA MODEL IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH SEAS AS A
RESULT OF AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS...SO KEPT SEAS BELOW 5 FEET
OVER THIS PERIOD.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS COULD
FLIRT WITH THE SOUTHERN WATERS AT TIMES...BUT PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE
FOR NOW WITH THE TYPICAL MODEL BIAS.  ALSO...MAY SEE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A
RESULT OF PATCHY FOG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FIRST HEAT
WAVE OF 2010 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

MAX DAILY RECORDS 7/6 AND 7/7 FOR REFERENCE

7/6 TODAY ALL DAY HIGH MINIMUMS
BDL 73 IN 2003 AND IN PRIOR YEARS
ORH 71 IN 2003 AND IN PRIOR YEARS

7/6 TODAY
BOS 101 IN 1911...HIGH TODAY 100F 1247PM...FIRST 100 DEGREE
READING SINCE AUGUST 14 2002.

PVD 102 IN 2010...PREVIOUSLY 97 IN 1999 AND IN PRIOR YEARS...SEE
RECORD REPORT.

MQE 99 IN 2010 AT 125PM...BEATS 98 IN 1911...SEE RECORD REPORT.

BDL 102 IN 2010...BEATS 99 IN 1999...TIES WARMEST HIGH OF ANY DAY...
SEE RECORD REPORT.

ORH 98 IN 1911...7/6 HIGH IS 96F FALLING SHORT OF THE RECORD.

NWS BOX 102 DEGREES 147PM JUL 6 2010...WARMEST TEMPERATURE ON
RECORD SINCE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN OCT 1996. PREVIOUSLY
101F WAS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE JUNE 10 2008 AND PREVIOUS DATES.

TIVERTON RI COOP...102F.

7/7 WEDNESDAY ALL DAY HIGH MINIMUMS
BOS 75 IN 1981 AND IN PRIOR YEARS
PVD 73 IN 1908
BDL 73 IN 1994
ORH 73 IN 2008

7/7 WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMEPRATURE RECORDS
BOS 99 IN 1993
PVD 97 IN 1993 AND PRIOR YEARS
BDL 99 IN 1993
ORH 95 IN 1908

THE LONGEST HEAT WAVES ON RECORD INCLUDE...FOR REFERENCE...

BDL...10 DAYS...7/24 - 8/2 1995
BOS...9 DAYS...7/3 - 7/11 1912
PVD...9 DAYS...7/12 - 7/20 1952
ORH...8 DAYS...8/10 - 8/17 1944

MOST RECENT HEAT WAVES PRIOR TO 2010

BDL...AUGUST 15-21 2009 7 DAYS
BOS...AUGUST 17-19 2009 3 DAYS
PVD...JULY 16-21 2008 6 DAYS
ORH...AUGUST 26-28 1993 3 DAYS

JUNE 2010

BDL...70.6F +2.1F TIED 10TH WARMEST JUNE WITH 1967
BOS...70.3F +2.3F TIED 11TH WARMEST JUNE WITH 2008
PVD...70.9F +3.3F 5TH WARMEST JUNE
ORH...67.4F +2.7F TIED 15TH WARMEST JUNE WITH SEVERAL YEARS

WARMEST OR NEAR WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE RECORDED FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR AT MANY OF THE LONG TERM CLIMATOLOGICAL
SITES FROM JAN 1-JUN 30

BDL 48.8F 2010 BEATS 48.6F 1991
30 YR NORMAL AVERAGE IS 45.0F...DEPARTURE +3.8F

BOS 48.9F 2010 TIED 48.9F 1976
30 YR NORMAL AVERAGE IS 45.8F...DEPARTURE +3.1F

PVD 49.2F 2010 BEATS 48.6F 1991
30 YR NORMAL AVERAGE IS 45.6F...DEPARTURE +3.6F

ORH 45.5F 2010 2ND WARMEST AND WARMEST SINCE 46.3F 1921
30 YR NORMAL AVERAGE IS 41.7F...DEPARTURE +3.8F

IN ADDITION...SIX CONSECUTIVE MONTHS WITH ABOVE NORMAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RECORDED...WITH THE LAST BELOW NORMAL MONTH
BEING DECEMBER 2009.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002.
MA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ003-010-
     011.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK
CLIMATE...STRAUSS